Bitcoin (BTC) could still salvage its traditionally strong October performance, as emerging onchain data points to a local price bottom forming following weeks of macroeconomic and geopolitical turbulence.
New analysis published on Monday by crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that underlying blockchain conditions have shifted into a state of "cautious optimism." This sentiment arrives as the flagship cryptocurrency continues to weather a complicated matrix of mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds.
Over recent weeks, the broader financial markets have contended with 24-year highs in United States bond yields, rising global oil prices, and cooling capital inflows into exchange-traded products (ETPs). These heavy pressures initially dampened market optimism regarding Bitcoin’s historically bullish performance during the month of October, frequently referred to in crypto circles as "Uptober."
"Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging," wrote XWIN Research Japan, a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant.
Since the start of the month, market conditions have gradually evolved to increasingly favor cryptocurrencies and other risk-on assets. XWIN points to cooling expectations of further interest-rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve extending into 2027, a shift that significantly boosts the probability of improving capital inflows moving forward. At the same time, market participants are anticipating greater clarity regarding the domestic political landscape in the United States as the approaching Midterm Elections draw near.
"Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations," XWIN continued, emphasizing the psychological and strategic impact that political stabilization often brings to institutional and retail asset management.
According to the analysis, a confluence of Bitcoin exchange reserves, apparent demand metrics, and whale holding behavior provides substantial reason to believe that October’s local price low may have already been established.
BTC Price Analysis Flags “Potential Bottom” Signals
A closer examination of the underlying metrics reveals encouraging trends across key exchange and whale cohorts. Bitcoin supply resting on centralized exchanges has experienced a notable decline, dropping from 2.726 million BTC on September 20 down to 2.68 million BTC as of Tuesday. This represents a decrease of approximately 1.7%, even when accounting for a modest, temporary increase in exchange balances over the course of the past week.
Simultaneously, the combined holdings controlled by large-volume investors, commonly referred to as "whales," have remained remarkably resilient, staying comfortably above the 3 million BTC threshold. This specific investor cohort demonstrated a strong stubbornness against capitulation, with their collective urge to reduce exposure surviving a sharp downward price movement that saw BTC/USD slide from $87,000 on October 2 down to near the $80,000 mark by October 8.
These resilience metrics are further supported by broader market context from earlier in the month, which saw Bitcoin testing key support levels as traditional markets reacted to regional economic shifts, including a tech sector sell-off in South Korea that heavily impacted the KOSPI index while United States stocks managed to skirt the direct fallout.
Bitcoin Demand Data Stays Bullish in October
Beyond exchange reserves and whale accumulation, apparent demand—a critical metric that compares newly minted Bitcoin supply with changes in dormant, long-term supply—shows that overall market demand remains fundamentally supportive.
The apparent demand metric had remained predominantly negative throughout the majority of 2026, save for a brief, fleeting period of positive 30-day readings recorded during the second half of August. While demand remained subdued following that summer peak, it has steadily recovered back to near-neutral levels as of this week, indicating that selling pressure is drying up while buying interest stabilizes.
"These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving. Confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying and continued demand recovery," XWIN noted, highlighting the technical prerequisites necessary to transition from a local bottom into a full-fledged macro recovery. "‘Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance."
This evolving perspective aligns with commentary from other major industry players. Earlier this week, prominent crypto asset manager Bitwise reported that third-quarter onchain data pointed toward a developing "crypto spring" following a period of historically significant market performance. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also recently drew widespread attention by announcing what he identified as the structural onset of a new crypto bull market in late August, boldly declaring that the previous bear market was officially "over."
As the market digests these competing signals, the combination of shrinking exchange reserves, steadfast whale accumulation, and recovering demand metrics suggests that Bitcoin may have successfully weathered the worst of October’s early storms, setting the stage for its next potential market phase.
