Bitcoin (BTC) could still salvage its traditionally robust October performance, as emerging onchain data suggests a local price bottom may have already formed. Despite weathering a turbulent macroeconomic landscape marked by shifting geopolitical tensions and fluctuating capital inflows, analysts point to encouraging signs of recovery across exchange reserves, whale accumulation, and apparent demand metrics.
BTC Price Analysis Flags “Potential Bottom” Signals
New analysis published on crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant on Monday highlights a state of “cautious optimism” taking hold across onchain conditions. Bitcoin has spent recent weeks navigating a complex web of mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. These challenges have included 24-year highs in United States bond yields, rising global oil prices, and cooling capital inflows to exchange-traded products. Such pressures initially dampened market enthusiasm regarding whether Bitcoin could deliver its customary strong performance during the month traditionally dubbed “Uptober.”
However, sentiment has begun to shift. “Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging,” wrote XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant. Since the start of October, broader market conditions have increasingly turned to favor cryptocurrencies and other risk assets. XWIN points to cooling expectations regarding interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve stretching into 2027, a shift that naturally boosts the probability of improving capital inflows. At the same time, market participants are anticipating greater clarity surrounding the domestic political situation in the United States as the approaching Midterm Elections draw near.
“Less political uncertainty after the vote could help investors reassess allocations,” XWIN noted, emphasizing that political clarity often triggers a re-evaluation of risk portfolios among institutional and retail players alike.
Underpinning this thesis, Bitcoin exchange reserves, apparent demand metrics, and large-scale whale holdings provide structural reasons to believe that October’s local low may already be behind the market. Data shows that the total supply of Bitcoin sitting on centralized exchanges has steadily declined, dropping from 2.726 million BTC on September 20 to 2.68 million BTC as of Tuesday. This represents a decrease of approximately 1.7%, even when accounting for a modest, temporary uptick observed over the preceding week.
Concurrently, the combined holdings of large-volume investors, commonly referred to as whales, have held firm above the 3 million BTC threshold. Notably, this cohort’s collective desire to reduce exposure has remarkably endured even as the BTC/USD exchange rate experienced a notable pullback, sliding from around $87,000 on October 2 down to near the $80,000 region by October 8. This resilience among large holders suggests that smart money is absorbing the selling pressure rather than capitulating to short-term market weakness.
Bitcoin Demand Data Stays Bullish in October
Apparel demand, a critical market indicator that compares newly mined Bitcoin against shifts in dormant supply, demonstrates that overall underlying market demand remains supportive. This metric had remained predominantly negative throughout much of 2026, punctuated only by a brief period of positive 30-day readings during the second half of August. Although demand dipped back into negative territory following that summer recovery, it has steadily climbed back toward near-neutral levels as the market entered the current week.
“These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving. Confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying and continued demand recovery,” XWIN explained, highlighting the necessary catalysts for a more aggressive upward continuation. “’Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”
The broader digital asset ecosystem has shown parallel signs of structural maturation. Earlier in the week, crypto asset manager Bitwise reported that third-quarter onchain data pointed toward a burgeoning “crypto spring” following a historically significant performance period. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju identified what he views as the inception of a brand-new crypto bull market in late August, publicly declaring that the previous bear market is officially “over.”
As market participants watch to see whether spot buyers and institutional exchange-traded funds can sustain the current momentum, the alignment of contracting exchange reserves and steady whale accumulation offers a compelling case for a resilient market floor heading into the second half of October.
